Saturday morning update: Even with three new wide box office releases this weekend and the reopening of New York City, the numbers still aren’t at pre-pandemic levels, but there’s a lot of drama going on.
Let’s start with the day and theatrical date of Disney Disney + release of the animated photo Raya and the last dragon who seems to lead the weekend with a $ 2.5M Friday and an estimate $ 8.3M in 2,045 cinemas. Those numbers are slightly lower than the $ 3 million Friday and $ 9-10 million we were hearing about, and they’re certainly lower than the $ 14.1 million Warner Bros. released the same day on HBO Max. Tom and Jerry posted last weekend with $ 14.1 million. RayaThe opening weekend of Croods: a new ageThe opening Thanksgiving stretch that was $ 9.7 million. And that’s certainly because Disney didn’t make a deal with channel # 3 Cinemark, as we first told you (thus losing about 250 bookings), Harkins, and Cineplex from Canada. Even with New York City open, Raya isn’t the type of movie that would rally around town like let’s say a Marvel movie.
‘Raya and the Last Dragon’ opening weekend at the box office, powered by authentic Asian promotion partners
Even though these figures on Raya are not as robust (for the pandemic) as we saw yesterday, the release scares the rival distributors and the exhibition a lot; especially after CEO Bob Chapek’s recent statements on Monday at the Morgan Stanley virtual investment conference in which he said things like The consumer is probably more impatient than ever before “and that given the way the pandemic has brought a number of movies into the home, it’s not sure “there’s a return” to the business way. Even though Chapek said, “We sure don’t want to do anything like chop off the legs of a theatrical show,” many are concerned all of this is code for Disney to move forward with their Disney + model day and theatrical date. ; and that Black Widow can emulate the same distribution path as Raya May 7. Keep in mind that while Los Angeles reopens by then and auditorium capacity restrictions ease, Disney still needs the rest of the world to move forward. Black Widow and make the billion dollar movie that everyone wants to see.
What scares many Raya is that Disney can keep 100% of anything they make from the $ 30 Disney + PVOD purchase of Raya. Disney does not have to share this PVOD revenue with an exhibitor. I was told that RayaDisney + ‘s $ 30 price tag is roughly equivalent to the rental Disney would get with five or six movie tickets. Wow. Although I heard that Warner Bros. partnered with the show and struck a deal on the terms of their HBO Max titles the same day, Disney hasn’t budged.
I am told that Disney’s conditions for Raya were a two-week minimum game with a scale that starts at a 50% rental if the movie ultimately makes between $ 0 and $ 37.5 million, then 51% if the National Raw Finals between $ 37.5 million and $ 50 million. While those terms aren’t rigid in a regular market, we’re still in a pandemic and people still aren’t rushing to movies in droves, and theaters have to compete with the Disney + PVOD set. How fair is that?
Let’s see what’s up with Black Widow, and if Disney emulates a Raya theatrical-Disney + distribution model for this. I would like to give Chapek the benefit of the doubt. Returning to Disney Investor Day in December, he made it clear that a solid Disney + slate wouldn’t be possible without the power of the big screen and the franchises it has created. He’is also the guy who crashed the movie DVD window, starting with Alice in Wonderland back in 2010; and the studio still walked away with a worldwide gross amount of $ 1.025 billion for that film. Disney didn’t burn the house down for warmth back then, and I still don’t think they will now. Currently, the studio says that Black Widow is still in theaters on May 7th, and the show didn’t hear otherwise, they’re just very suspicious as there was no trailer for the Marvel movie on Raya last weekend, only those of the Disney theatrical release on May 28 Cruella.
From a box office perspective, it’s safe to say that Disney left money on the table with Raya with Boxing Cinemark and Cineplex of Canada. Why would you do that with a movie like Raya who has an A CinemaScore, is 95% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and PostTrak’s fantastic audience comes out 93% with a recommendation of 80% from the general public?
Only Disney knows the answer to this question. Regarding the potential Disney + non-declaration Raya PVOD figures, no news is good news. Because anything bigger would throw the film’s distribution model off its axis.
On the rise for the feature film directed by Don Hall and Carlos Lopez Estrada, Raya attracted a predominantly female crowd of 57%, with a third of those who bought tickets being under the age of 17. The distribution of diversity was 37% Caucasians, 22% Black, 21% Asian, and 20% Hispanic. Raya played the best in Salt Lake City, I hear, but she had some really good numbers for the pandemic in New York, Chicago, Dallas, Washington DC, Houston, Seattle, Phoenix; the list goes on.
Warners does not report figures on Tom and Jerry today, but we hear it is heading for a No.2 spot on its second weekend in 2,563 locations (+88) with an industry estimated Friday at $ 1.6 million, -60% by compared to a week and 3 days ago $ 6.75 million, -52% for a cumulative total over ten days of $ 23.1 million. There were discussions between rivals ahead of the weekend which Tom and Jerry could possibly steal it Raya since this movie did not have Cinemark; that doesn’t seem to be the case, and the drop for those theatrical-HBO Max titles seems to be steeper on Weekend 2. Remember, Wonder Woman 1984 fell 67%, and that was during a New Year’s weekend, usually a big time for the movies.
Lionsgate’s $ 100 Million YA Bet Walk in chaos starring Daisy Ridley and Tom Holland is on the verge of losing money, as is any major outing during the pandemic where 50% of the 5.8K US and Canadian theaters are closed. Industry estimates show the film with a $ 1.3M Friday and 3 days of $ 3.7M. The diagnoses on the film with a B CinemaScore, horrible reviews at 24% rotten, and a PostTrak of 67% and a recommendation of 41% indicate that the film was never going to rally even in a healthy market, so the studio has decided to go there and not keep this function any further. The opening weekend of the photo is synchronized with the box office sources projected as the weekend approaches. The sci-fi feature film directed by Doug Liman attracted 54% male, 65% over 25, with the 25-34 demo accounting for 30% of ticket buyers. The distribution of diversity was 56% White, 20% Hispanic, 15% Black, and 11% Asian. The main markets were New York, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago, Houston and Denver.
In fourth place, Focus Features’ Eddie Huang film Boogie who did 430,000 USD in 1252 sites yesterday on the way to 3 days of $ 1.26M. Pic landed a C + CinemaScore. The Rotten Tomatoes score was low here at 44% and PostTrak Ok with 70% and 55% recommend. Guys bought 53% tickets with over 60% between 18 and 34, and the 18-24 demo over 40%. The diversity mix was 44% Black, 20% Hispanic, 18% Asian, and 18% Caucasian. Boogie was the best on the East Coast with New York, Philly, Boston, Chicago and Miami among its major markets.
Universal animation / DreamWorks Croods: a new age over the weekend, 15 tagged at 1604 locations were awarded a $ 200,000 Friday, -28%, and 3 days of 890,000 USD, -29% for a cumulative total of $ 53.7 million.
Overall, how is New York doing at the box office? Fandango is not releasing results this weekend on auditorium sales, and Comscore may have information once the weekend is over.